Uk housing market crash in 2021. Basically there ain't gonna be one in this video I'm going to share with you eight reasons why there won't be a property price crash in 2021. I'm going to share with you three types of property that you really want to avoid like the plague or should I say, avoid like covid19 in 2021, and I'm going to share with you my four-step plan to maximize the opportunity in 2021. So there's a lot to cover, so stay tuned, [, Music ]. Now my name is Ranjan Bhattacharya. I've been investing in developing properties for over 30 years. You may have seen me on property elevator, the hit sky tv show for property investors, or you may have attended one of our property networking events in central London now if you're new to this channel or you're, not a subscriber well, why ever not subscribe and hit The bell icon, we put out new content each and every week and it's all dedicated to making you a more successful property investor.
I've put out a number of videos on property prices in the property market. I'll put a recommended watching list of those videos in the description so be sure to check that out now there are lots of people on youtube, predicting a big property crash in 2021. Now some of these people have been predicting crashes for years, but you know what even a stopped clock is absolutely correct. Twice a day now, I'm saying there won't be a crash in property prices in 2021, but i'm not saying there's going to be a massive boom either they hear a lot of people talk about the fact that the UK is a small island and we have a Massive shortage of Housing, and that is going to mean that property prices are going to go up up up well, that may be true over the long term, but it certainly isn't true over the short term, I mean, after all, the Isle of Wight is a small Island what's been happening there with property prices in the long term, property prices will go up. So why are we so fixated with what's happening to property prices in the immediate future?
Well, when you buy an investment property, the first few years of ownership is the most risky you've got to buy. The thing you've got to make sure you cash flow it as quickly as possible and you've got to make sure that you exit out of the deal with as much of your money as possible. I've done a video on the brewer method, which underpins what i've just talked about. So if you as an investor, you're buying an investment property - and it goes down if you like - if you buy it at the wrong time - and it goes down and prices do crash in the short term, that poses a massive problem for you. So, let's get into it eight factors why property prices will not crash in 2021.
Number one is the amount of money that the government has printed and put into the economy. It's close to one trillion pound three times as much money that was pumped into the economy after the credit crunch in 2009., the value of your pound has gone down in real terms and when they make money in more plentiful supply, what happens is the value or The price of real finite assets tends to go up. This is happening in spades. If you look at gold, for example, a one ounce gold coin a couple of years ago - cost about a thousand pound. Today, it's upwards of fifteen hundred pounds for that same one, ounce gold coins we're seeing right now massive upward movements in the uk stock market stock markets have experienced their largest gains over the course of the last 30 days than at any period over the last 30 Years, why is that? Well, companies, ftse 100 companies are finite when the government prints so much money. What happens is that find the value or the price of finite assets tends to rise uh to maintain the same value if you like, as as they were before, that extra money was printed? This means that, because of this extra money, that's been printed, property prices will see a rise, but for the moment, unlike gold in the stock market, that rise will be subdued. In fact, i believe it will plateau the reason for that is because we have the specter of unemployment.
On the on the horizon, i mean there's immediately going to be some short-term unemployment. We'Ve got furlough schemes coming to an end, uh in in the first quarter of 2021. These will all subdue demand for property in the short term, but as soon as unemployment starts to bounce back to normal levels, as it will do, and it will do in a very short space of time. That'S when we'll see a massive asset price bubble emerge and particularly property prices will inflate, but do bear in mind um. When i talk about inflate, that is not inflating the real value of the properties. That'S just inflating them in terms of price to keep the price. The same as they were before the government pumped in one trillion pounds worth of extra money into the economy. So as a hedge against that hidden inflation, investing in property is a surefire bet. Reason number two is long-term low interest rates. Interest rates, as we know, are at all time record lows and they're likely to stay so for the foreseeable future by foreseeable future. I i don't see any any spikes in at least seven eight years. Why is that? Because we are a more global, integrated economy than ever before. The last time, uh interest rates really spiked was in the very very early 1990s. In 1991 we saw an overnight doubling of interest rates. They went up from seven eight percent to fifteen percent. Now, at that time, the world wasn't as connected as it is now, and significant economies um weren't as joined together as they are now. What happens now is that all the major economies tend to do things in sync and at the moment we have, for the foreseeable future, at an ultra low interest rate environment
Oh and smash that, like button guys, it really helps us out on youtube and comment. Tell me what you think about what I'm saying below number three is the sdlt holiday. The stamp duty holiday in the UK comes to an end on the 31st of march 2021, but i believe that will be extended. The reason it would be extended is because the um, the housing market, hates cliffhedges and I think the worst time for a cliff edge, is exactly on in march, at a time when the economy will be looking to recover so expect to see that holiday extended. For the short term, number four is the five percent deposit scheme for first-time buyers, and this is going to be absolutely massive in terms of underpinning the housing market previously, of course, um new build developers, developers of new properties could apply for the help to buy scheme Or should we say, help to sell scheme which allowed them to sell the properties to first-time buyers, and they only required a five percent deposit? Now the amazing thing is the government is planning to extend this scheme to first-time buyers for of second-hand property, second user property, and that will be amazing. This is an ideological thing for the tories and i think it is going to go ahead. Um you see the tories know, of course, that um homeowners tend to vote tory and what they're trying to do is encourage more home ownership to encourage vote bank for the future.
So I believe, that's going to happen, but that means a huge amount for the property market, because what it means is that people, first-time buyers will be able to get on the housing ladder at record. Low interest rates with only a five percent deposit required and not have to go for some of these expensive, overpriced new bills with high service charges and all of that they can buy a two bedroom, terrace property second hand and benefit from that five percent. Deposit number five, the whole world seems to be going green, yes, uh they're, going to be a whole raft of green incentives and grants. Government grants to help property owners with renovations to basically bring up to standard the insulation and the energy performance of buildings. So, as a property investor, if you're buying a dilapidated building which is in need of renovation, you will basically benefit from certain improvement grants. Number six is the city exodus. Now the city exodus is temporary, guys um now we're hearing a lot about uh migration. It'S as though you know some people are talking about, as though people are herds of wildebeests going across the plains migrating away from the big cities, leaving these hollow places where they're going to be completely desolate, but mark my words. This is completely temporary. Once we've all had our vaccinations and our we've got our papers uh that we have to walk around with to say we are um, covid free and all of that you know this is all going to bounce back, because we are social creatures. Uh people want people contact, many of you may know. I run the baker street property meet the uk's largest property networking event in central london pre-covered and we used to have 300 people come to our monthly networking meets. You know not a week goes by when we don't get emails, saying when are we starting baker street when you, when, when can we um sort of meet up again and that's because people strive or crave human contact now it might be okay for some um to Flee the big city and go to some countryside bolt hole where the internet is on dial-up and you can walk your dog with a bit of fresh air. But there's no one to be seen for miles.
But a lot of people like to be surrounded by other people, particularly young people, uh, want to be around people and the best place for that is cities, and we see massive evidence of that. You know the minute there's any any uh, let up in any of the lockdown regulations that affect your part of the country. What do you see? Everyone goes down the pub and socializes and wants to be with other people, so the city exodus is going to be short-lived and that's going to present short-term opportunities for the kanye savvy property entrepreneur—number seven unincorporated landlords. Now, there's a massive problem brewing for middle-class property investors who haven't bought properties through a limited company who do a middle class job and they're they're in the 40 45 tax bracket, and perhaps they've got one or two properties which they have as buy to lay investments On the side, these people are going to face massive problems. Firstly, with section 24, the tax on their mortgage interest payments, um, they've lost 10 wear and tear allowance and rishi sunak has proposed uh extra capital gains tax for people that own second properties in their own name.
Of course, if you own properties within a company uh or your portfolio, landlord with with properties held within a company you're not going to be faced by this kind of issue, so they're going to be some middle-class landlords in in professional jobs who don't do property as A business they just do a couple on the side um, it is going to prove uneconomic for these guys to hold on to their properties in many areas, and these guys will look to sell.
But I believe these properties, this stock, is going to be mopped up by first-time buyers, taking advantage of the five percent deposit and ability to buy at very, very low interest rates. Number eight is the job situation. There are no bones about it. The job situation in the uh in the short term - ain't good - it ain't rosy and there's going to be a bit of doom and gloom, but the axe is going to fall disproportionately on the low-skilled job market and that's one of the reasons I'm going to urge. You to avoid low-value areas.
These will be risky over the next couple of years. Now, what I've talked about is very general. The housing market is not the same in every area, and every type of property is not affected by the same trends that I've talked about. Now, what I'm going to go on to now are three types of property which really you should avoid in 2021 because those are going to give you trouble, but before I do that make sure you've liked this video youtube shares it with more people, just like you. So three types of property which are too risky for 2021 well um, I'm saying the market will plateau we're not going to see too much happening in terms of rise or fall in 2021. After that time, we'll we'll start to see some boom boom boom when the market's plateauing. One thing you want to stay away from is new bills, and I'm talking in particular about new bills, flat new build flats. New build flats, often command a premium. To a second hand, property - and now is not the time to be paying over market value for a given property, particularly when these also come with very high service charges. So new build properties, stay clear.
These will fall in the short term and low value areas. Now low value desolate areas will be challenging, there's a reason why certain properties in certain locations are cheap, often it's because of the job situation. The job situation was dire before covid and guess what it's going to be after covered even more dire, and often these areas are in areas where, according to the national census figures, the population is actually decreasing year on year. Now there are plenty of areas in the northeast and the northwest of england uh, where property prices have not even moved since 2007.
Now stay tuned to the next session, I'll share with you exactly how to avoid investing in low value areas, and the third area of concern I have is HMOs. Hmo demand in many areas is reaching saturation point. A lot of hmos are aimed at tenant groups who have been most savagely affected by the unemployment situation. That'S unfolding and also particularly in cheap areas. There'S been a massive rush to because the properties are cheap. They've been a massive rush by new investors to go out and buy these properties and make um sort of five-bedroom hmos and the like and they've found that the tenants are simply not there. Brexit has also had a role to play. Um people came from Europe uh to to live temporarily in hmos, while they worked a few years before they went back home. That market has disappeared. So I'm seeing and i'm hearing from a lot of people with hmos uh struggling to maintain anywhere near full occupancy and are looking to convert them back into single-family. Let'S so hmos in low value areas is something to avoid. So, let's draw some of this together. As i share with you, my four-point action plan for profiting from these opportunities in 2021.
So number one doesn't wait for the crash to happen because it ain't gonna happen, except for certain types of properties, as I've discussed, the new bills, the low value areas and the HMOs expect more of a plateau in 2021. Keep an eye out on the unemployment figures. As soon as the job market returns to type of normality, we will see boom boom boom. So number two don't invest in low value areas. What do I mean by low-value areas? The average house price in the Uk is now 250 000 pound. So what I'm saying, if you're investing in areas where you can pick up a house for 40 grand that's the average price, that's what i mean by no value that is desolate. As a rough rule. Rule of thumb i would be looking to invest in areas where the average house price in that locality is in excess of 200 000 pound. You can find that information out from zoopla right move. They have past sale, price data and averages per region, and also land registry number three focus on adding immediate value: don't buy stuff, you can't add immediate value to now.
I'Ve talked about the brew strategy and we've done a video on that. Now, when you implement the bro strategy in a in a plateauing market that isn't going anywhere, the way you pull your money out at the end is pretty much by making sure you can add significant value to what you're buying in 2021, one of the best ways Of adding value real value to properties that you purchase is going to be commercial to residential conversions. Now this is a subject that i run some specialist training in and i also have a free 90-minute webinar on the subject which you can join me on um and the link is on the screen and and in the description below propertyhyphanworkshop.com number. Four focus on cash flow. Anything you buy needs to cash flow positively, on or as close to day, one of purchase as possible. Remember, you're, borrowing at record low rates, your rental income needs to cover those costs and produce a surplus that will tide you over until when the market starts to grow in terms of asset value.
And of course, I mentioned earlier in the video that we've got a lot of the middle-class landlords who are unincorporated they're selling up because of section 24 capital gains tax, and all of that this is going to mean that there will be more demand for rented Housing, so that about sums it up, let me know what you think in the comments below just to sort of give you the summary. If you like, one trillion pounds has been printed, you know and the value that money is going to go into the value or the price of finite assets. We'Ve already seen that in gold we've already seen that in stocks and shares it's going to happen in property. It'S just going to be a bit subdued for the next year, or so until the unemployment situation is sorted out and then the property will go the same way as gold and stocks so 2021 for the savvy entrepreneur is the ideal time to get started in property .
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